Page 36 - Policy Economic Report - March 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Natural Gas Market

Natural Gas Price – Monthly Review

? Natural Gas spot prices at the US Henry Hub benchmark averaged $3.62 per million British
thermal units (MMBtu) in February 2026. Henry Hub's natural gas prices dropped in February,
after five consecutive months of gains, falling by ~53%, m-o-m. Prices experienced a sharp
correction as temperatures normalized across the region in February following a cold snap the
previous month, leading to a decline in heating. Higher LNG exports, coupled with a decline in
storage levels, limited downside pressure. According to data from the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA), average weekly natural gas storage decreased by 29.0%, m-o-m, in
February. Prices were down by ~14%, y-o-y.

? Natural gas spot price at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands in Europe traded at
an average of $11.24 per MMBtu. The average Title Transfer Facility (TTF) price receded in
February, falling by 4.4%, m-o-m. US LNG imports improved in the month ahead of the
beginning of the storage refill season, which reduced the supply risk premium, despite a decline
in current storage levels. According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, EU storage levels
fell to 30% as of the end of February, down from 41% the previous month, representing an 11-
percentage point decrease, m-o-m. Moderate coal burns in the region also contributed to easing
pressure on gas prices in the period. Prices were down by 26.7%, y-o-y.

? Japan Liquefied Natural Gas Import Price averaged at $11.47 per MMBtu for February 2026.
There is a change of -0.2% from last month and -10.3% from one year ago.

? The Union Cabinet has approved a new formula for pricing of natural gas and imposed cap or
ceiling price on the same. Natural gas produced from legacy or old fields, known as APM gas, will
now be indexed to crude oil prices. From April 1 2023, APM gas will be priced at 10% of the price
of basket of crude oil that India imports. The rate such arrived at however will be capped at US$
6.50 per MMBTU. The price such arrived at will also have a floor of US$4 per MMBTU. As per
notification dated 31st March 2025, the APM gas price has been raised to US$ 6.75 per MMBTU,
up from US$ 6.50 per MMBTU.

? Further, in accordance with MoP&NG, Govt. of India, pricing freedom for gas being produced
from discoveries in Deepwater, Ultra Deepwater and High Pressure-High Temperature areas, the
gas price ceiling for the period 1st April, 2023 - 30th September, 2023 was notified as US$
12.12/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st March, 2023.
As per notification dated 30th September 2023, Gas price ceiling was further revised for the
period 1st October, 2023 – 31st March, 2024 was notified as US$9.96/MMBTU on Gross Calorific
Value (GCV) basis. Prices were further revised for the period 1st April, 2024 – 30th September,
2024 was notified as US$9.87/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification
dated 31st March 2024. Accordingly, for the period 1st October, 2024 – 31st March, 2025 gas
price ceiling was further revised as US$10.16/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as

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