Page 31 - Policy Economic Report - March 2026
P. 31
POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET
Oil production situation
? Non-DoC liquids production (i.e. liquids production from countries not participating in the DoC) is
forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026. The main drivers of liquids production growth
are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina.
? In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is also forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, unchanged from last
month’s assessment, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids
(NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by
0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average about 8.8 mb/d, followed by similar growth in 2027 of about 0.1
mb/d, y-o-y, to average about 8.9 mb/d. In February, crude oil production by countries participating
in the DoC increased by 445 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.72 mb/d, according to available
secondary sources.
Table 3: Non-DoC liquids production in 2026, mb/d
Non-OPEC liquids production 2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 2026
Americas 28.29 27.95 28.41 28.72 28.94 28.51
21.78 22.40 22.50 22.59 22.32
of which US 22.22 3.63 3.54 3.52 3.63 3.58
0.41 0.38 0.39 0.38 0.39
Europe 3.63 31.99 32.34 32.62 32.95 32.48
4.67 4.67 4.57 4.57 4.62
Asia Pacific 0.41 0.83 0.82 0.82 0.83 0.82
1.64 1.62 1.60 1.61 1.62
Total OECD 32.32 7.90 7.92 7.98 8.11 7.98
2.01 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.03
China 4.62 2.25 2.23 2.24 2.31 2.26
0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36
India 0.82 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
19.76 19.73 19.71 19.92 19.78
Other Asia 1.64 51.75 52.08 52.33 52.87 52.26
2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57
Latin America 7.55 54.32 54.65 54.90 55.44 54.83
Middle East 1.99
Africa 2.27
Other Eurasia 0.36
Other Europe 0.09
Total Non-OECD 19.34
Total Non-DoC production 51.66
Processing gains 2.54
Total Non-DoC liquids production 54.20
Source - OPEC monthly report, March 2026
? From the above table, it can be inferred, that the total non-DoC liquids production is expected to
reach 54.83 mb/d by 2026.
? The non-DoC liquids production (i.e. liquid production countries not participating in the Declaration
of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d to average in 2026.
March 2026 Page | 30
