Page 29 - Policy Economic Report - March 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

positions was accompanied by sizeable financial inflows, with money managers being net buyers of an
equivalent of 126 mb over the month. For a second consecutive month, money managers reduced a
substantial volume of short positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI, following the build-up of short
positions observed in 4Q25. The adjustment in positioning reflected stronger-than-expected physical
market fundamentals, supply disruptions, and elevated geopolitical risk perceptions. At the same time,
long positions increased sharply, contributing further to an expansion in overall net long positions.

Crude spot prices extended their gains in February, supported by firm physical market fundamentals.
Demand remained strong, particularly from Asia-Pacific buyers, while robust buying interest in March-
loading programmes lent support to spot prices in Northwest Europe. Higher refining margins in Europe
and on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) also contributed to stronger buying interest. Supply disruptions in
some regions further tightened spot market conditions, particularly in the Atlantic Basin. A slow
recovery in the Caspian region, alongside temporary disruptions in the US and North Africa due to
weather conditions, raised concerns over near-term supply availability. In addition, geopolitical
developments in several key producing regions contributed to elevated risk premiums. Spot crude prices
continued to trade at firm premiums relative to futures in February, although these premiums
narrowed, m-o-m, amid still-strong physical market conditions. The North Sea Dated premium to the ICE
Brent front-month contract declined by $1.27/b, m-o-m, to $2.67/b.

In February, the ORB value increased by $5.59/b, m-o-m, to average $67.90/b. West and North African
Basket components Bonny Light, Djeno, Es Sider, Rabi Light, Sahara Blend and Zafiro increased by an
average of $4.15/b, m-o-m, to $69.89/b. Multiple-region destination grades, including Arab Light, Basrah
Medium, Iran Heavy, and Kuwait Export, rose on average by $5.67/b, m-o-m, to $67.09/b. Murban crude
rose on average by $5.46/b, m-o-m, to $69.45/b, and the Merey component increased by $9.10/b, m-o-
m, to settle at $52.31/b.

Brent crude ranged an average to $97.86 a barrel and WTI ranged to $90.76 per barrel in the month of
March 2026.

Figure 14: Benchmark price of Brent, WTI and Dubai crude

125
115
105

95
85
75
65
55
45
35
25

Brent Spot Price ($/bbl) WTI Spot Price ($/bbl) Dubai spot price ($/bbl)

Source - World Bank Page | 28

March 2026