Page 41 - Policy Economic Report- June'26

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil product stocks declined 3.7%, m-o-m, and 20.3%, y-o-y, in May. This
pressure on total product availability was largely driven by fuel oil and gasoline, which accounted for
51.2% and 45.5% of the monthly decline in total ARA product stocks, respectively.

According to preliminary data, May refinery runs in EU-14, Norway and the UK decreased by 80 tb/d to
an average of 9.42 mb/d. Refinery margins against Brent in Europe averaged $26.76/b in May, which was
$4.26 higher, m-o-m, and $17.20 higher, y-o-y.

Figure 19: Refining Margins ($/bbl)

Source: Argus and OPEC

The Southeast Asia 92 gasoline crack spread against Dubai rose as previous regional refinery output
constraints put pressure on availability. However, an improvement in gasoline output going forward is
expected to expand regional balances, which could pose downside risks to gasoline markets if exports
beyond Asian borders remain subdued. The margin averaged $28.41/b in May, up $6.17/b, m-o-m, and
up $17.03/b, y-o-y.

Figure 20: Singapore crack Spreads vs. Dubai ($/bbl)

Source: Argus and OPEC Page | 40

June 2026