Page 37 - Policy Economic Report- June'26

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

February. North Sea Dated and Dubai first-month prices dropped by $13.60/b and $4.27/b, m-o-m,
respectively, to average $107.80/b and $101.29/b.

However, WTI spot prices rose slightly, m-o-m, finding support amid an ongoing draw in US crude stocks,
strong US crude exports, and firm US refinery intakes. WTI's first-month price rose by $0.53/b, m-o-m, to
average $99.16/b.

At the beginning of May, spot prices remained relatively supported by lingering supply constraints and
limited prompt availability, as refiners continued to secure replacement barrels in the June trading cycle.
However, later in the month, growing expectations of improving global oil supply conditions combined
with softer refinery demand weighed on market sentiment. Weaker refinery margins across several key
regions, particularly in Asia, also exerted downward pressure on crude prices. Lower refinery runs reduced
spot buying activity, while the availability of alternative supplies constrained price premiums. As a result,
crude differentials weakened across most key spot markets, easing from the elevated levels observed in
March and April.

In May, the ORB value rose by $5.49/b, m-o-m, to average $114.55/b. West and North African Basket
components Bonny Light, Djeno, Es Sider, Rabi Light, Sahara Blend and Zafiro dropped by an average of
$14.44/b, m-o-m, to $108.46/b. Multiple-region destination grades, including Arab Light, Basrah Medium,
Iran Heavy and Kuwait Export, increased on average by $12.49/b, m-o-m, to $119.09/b. Murban crude
declined on average by $2.29/b, m-o-m, to $102.17/b, and the Merey component dropped by $7.70/b,
m-o-m, to settle at $82.77/b.

Brent crude ranged an average to $87.06 a barrel and WTI ranged to $84.12 per barrel in the month of
June 2026.

Figure 17: Benchmark price of Brent, WTI and Dubai crude

125
115
105

95
85
75
65
55
45
35
25

Brent Spot Price ($/bbl) WTI Spot Price ($/bbl) Dubai spot price ($/bbl)

Source: World Bank Page | 36

June 2026