Page 14 - Policy Economic Report- June'26

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

global goods trade has remained relatively resilient, trade growth is expected to moderate amid weaker
external demand, elevated shipping costs, and continued uncertainty surrounding global trade policies.
Businesses across several sectors have increasingly adopted supply chain diversification strategies aimed
at reducing dependence on single-country sourcing and improving resilience against future disruptions.

The reconfiguration of global value chains has accelerated investment in strategic sectors such as
semiconductors, critical minerals, clean energy technologies, and advanced manufacturing. Governments
and multinational corporations are increasingly pursuing “friend-shoring”, “near-shoring”, and supply
chain diversification initiatives to strengthen economic security and reduce vulnerabilities arising from
geopolitical risks. At the same time, continued investment in digital technologies, automation, and
artificial intelligence is improving supply chain efficiency, although higher logistics costs and persistent
trade barriers continue to weigh on international commerce.

Recent assessments by UNCTAD indicate that geopolitical tensions have increasingly overtaken trade
policy as the principal source of risk to the global economy. While tariff-related uncertainties remain
important, disruptions to energy markets, strategic maritime routes, and critical supply chains are now
exerting a greater influence on trade, investment, and business confidence. The growing fragmentation
of global commerce is reinforcing the need for diversified supply chains, resilient infrastructure, and closer
international cooperation to sustain long-term economic growth.

Figure 5: Global Trade Growth Outlook (2025–2028)

Source: Haver Analytics; UN Comtrade; World Bank (“e” stands for estimate; “f” stands for forecast)

June 2026 Global Manufacturing and Business Activity

Global manufacturing and business activity remained uneven during June 2026 as geopolitical tensions,
elevated energy prices, persistent inflationary pressures, and tighter financial conditions continued to
influence business sentiment across major economies. According to the latest S&P Global Flash PMI

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