Page 34 - Policy Economic Report - Feb 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Natural Gas Market

Natural Gas Price – Monthly Review

• Natural Gas spot prices at the US Henry Hub benchmark averaged $7.72 per million British thermal
units (MMBtu) in January 2026. Henry Hub's natural gas prices continued their upward
momentum for a fifth consecutive month in January, rising by 81.2%, m-o-m. Prices rallied on the
back of colder weather, which lifted demand for residential heating in the month. At the same
time, supply was limited amid production outages in key regions. According to data from the US
Energy Information Administration (EIA), average weekly natural gas storage decreased by 12.6%,
m-o-m, in January. Prices also benefited from higher LNG demand, though export capacity was
limited due to some outages. Prices were up by 86.9%, y-o-y.

• Natural gas spot price at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands in Europe traded at an
average of $11.76 per MMBtu. The average Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price ended its sixth
consecutive monthly decline in January, rising by 24%, m-o-m. Prices rose as colder weather
across the region increased heating demand, promoting a sharp decline in storage levels.
According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, EU storage levels fell to 41% as of the end of
January, down from 62% the previous month, representing a 21% drop, m-o-m. Prices also
benefited in the month from US LNG export constraints, which limited supply availability to
Europe. Prices were down by 19.8%, y-o-y.

• Japan Liquefied Natural Gas Import Price averaged at $11.29 per MMBtu for January 2026. There
is a change of -0.3% from last month and -14.4% from one year ago.

• The Union Cabinet has approved a new formula for pricing of natural gas and imposed cap or
ceiling price on the same. Natural gas produced from legacy or old fields, known as APM gas, will
now be indexed to crude oil prices. From April 1 2023, APM gas will be priced at 10% of the price
of basket of crude oil that India imports. The rate such arrived at however will be capped at US$
6.50 per MMBTU. The price such arrived at will also have a floor of US$4 per MMBTU. As per
notification dated 31st March 2025, the APM gas price has been raised to US$ 6.75 per MMBTU,
up from US$ 6.50 per MMBTU.

• Further, in accordance with MoP&NG, Govt. of India, pricing freedom for gas being produced from
discoveries in Deepwater, Ultra Deepwater and High Pressure-High Temperature areas, the gas
price ceiling for the period 1st April, 2023 - 30th September, 2023 was notified as US$
12.12/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st March, 2023. As
per notification dated 30th September 2023, Gas price ceiling was further revised for the period
1st October, 2023 – 31st March, 2024 was notified as US$9.96/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value
(GCV) basis. Prices were further revised for the period 1st April, 2024 – 30th September, 2024 was
notified as US$9.87/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st
March 2024. Accordingly, for the period 1st October, 2024 – 31st March, 2025 gas price ceiling
was further revised as US$10.16/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification

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