Page 35 - Policy Economic Report - October 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Natural Gas Market

Natural Gas Price – Monthly Review

? Natural Gas spot prices at the US Henry Hub benchmark averaged $2.97 per million British
thermal units (MMBtu) in September 2025. Henry Hub's natural gas prices rebounded in
September by 2.1%, m-o-m. Prices rose due to a combination of higher end-of-summer demand
and pipeline maintenance in some regions. However, stable LNG exports coupled with elevated
stocks limited upside support. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration
(EIA), average weekly natural gas storage increased by 8.1%, m-o-m, in September. Prices were
up by ~30.3%, y-o-y.

? Natural gas spot price at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands in Europe traded at
an average of $11.12 per MMBtu. The average Title Transfer Facility (TTF) declined for a third
consecutive month, falling by 0.3%, m-o-m. Stable LNG supply and high storage levels in the
region offset supply risk concerns and geopolitical risk premiums. According to data from Gas
Infrastructure Europe, EU storage levels rose to 82.5% as of the end of September, up from
77.7% in July, representing a 4.8 percentage point increase. Prices were down by 5.6%, y-o-y.

? Japan Liquefied Natural Gas Import Price averaged at $11.72 per MMBtu for September 2025.
There is a change of -0.6% from last month and -9.6% from one year ago.

? The Union Cabinet has approved a new formula for pricing of natural gas and imposed cap or
ceiling price on the same. Natural gas produced from legacy or old fields, known as APM gas, will
now be indexed to crude oil prices. From April 1 2023, APM gas will be priced at 10% of the price
of basket of crude oil that India imports. The rate such arrived at however will be capped at US$
6.50 per MMBTU. The price such arrived at will also have a floor of US$4 per MMBTU. As per
notification dated 31st March 2025, the APM gas price has been raised to US$ 6.75 per MMBTU,
up from US$ 6.50 per MMBTU.

? Further, in accordance with MoP&NG, Govt. of India, pricing freedom for gas being produced
from discoveries in Deepwater, Ultra Deepwater and High Pressure-High Temperature areas, the
gas price ceiling for the period 1st April, 2023 - 30th September, 2023 was notified as US$
12.12/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st March, 2023.
As per notification dated 30th September 2023, Gas price ceiling was further revised for the
period 1st October, 2023 – 31st March, 2024 was notified as US$9.96/MMBTU on Gross Calorific
Value (GCV) basis. Prices were further revised for the period 1st April, 2024 – 30th September,
2024 was notified as US$9.87/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification
dated 31st March 2024. Accordingly, for the period 1st October, 2024 – 31st March, 2025 gas
price ceiling was further revised as US$10.16/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as
per notification dated 30th September 2024. Now, as per notification dated 31st March 2025, Gas
price ceiling was further revised for the period 1st April, 2025 – 30th September, 2025 was
notified as US$10.04/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis. Prices were further revised

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