Page 32 - Policy Economic Report - July 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Natural Gas Market

Natural Gas Price – Monthly Review

• Natural gas spot prices at the US Henry Hub benchmark averaged $3.02 per million British thermal
units (MMBtu) in June 2025. Henry Hub's natural gas prices declined for a fourth consecutive
month in June, falling by ~3.0%, m-o-m. A combination of mild weather and lower US LNG demand
inflated domestic storage, dragging down prices. Reports of high storage levels added more
downward pressure on prices. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration,
average weekly natural gas storage increased by 23.9%, m-o-m, in June and was reported to be
above the five-year average.

• Natural gas spot price at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands in Europe traded at an
average of $12.37 per MMBtu. The average Title Transfer Facility (TTF) advanced for a second
consecutive month in June, increasing by 6.0%, m-o-m. Prices rose on the back of higher cooling
demand amid heat waves in the region. Gains were capped by a lower geopolitical risk premium
and reports of healthy storage levels across the region. According to data from Gas Infrastructure
Europe, EU storage levels rose to 58.9% as of the end of June, up from 48.4% in May, a 10.5 pp
increase. Prices were up by 13.8%, y-o-y.

• Japan Liquefied Natural Gas Import Price averaged at $12.26 per MMBtu for June 2025. There is
a change of -0.5% from last month and 1.1% from one year ago.

• The Union Cabinet has approved a new formula for pricing of natural gas and imposed cap or
ceiling price on the same. Natural gas produced from legacy or old fields, known as APM gas, will
now be indexed to crude oil prices. From April 1 2023, APM gas will be priced at 10% of the price
of basket of crude oil that India imports. The rate such arrived at however will be capped at US$
6.50 per MMBTU. The price such arrived at will also have a floor of US$4 per MMBTU. As per
notification dated 31st March 2025, the APM gas price has been raised to US$ 6.75 per MMBTU,
up from US$ 6.50 per MMBTU.

• Further, in accordance with MoP&NG, Govt. of India, pricing freedom for gas being produced from
discoveries in Deepwater, Ultra Deepwater and High Pressure-High Temperature areas, the gas
price ceiling for the period 1st April, 2023 - 30th September, 2023 was notified as US$
12.12/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st March, 2023. As
per notification dated 30th September 2023, Gas price ceiling was further revised for the period
1st October, 2023 – 31st March, 2024 was notified as US$9.96/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value
(GCV) basis. Prices were further revised for the period 1st April, 2024 – 30th September, 2024 was
notified as US$9.87/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated 31st
March 2024. Accordingly, for the period 1st October, 2024 – 31st March, 2025 gas price ceiling was
further revised as US$10.16/MMBTU on Gross Calorific Value (GCV) basis as per notification dated
30th September 2024. Now, as per notification dated 31st March 2025, Gas price ceiling was further

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