Page 28 - Policy Economic Report - July 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Table 4: World Oil demand, mb/d

2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 Growth %
45.60 46.32 46.13 45.80 0.14 0.28
Total OECD 45.67 45.16 20.48 20.67 20.72 20.57 0.15 0.73
58.70 59.21 60.23 59.33 1.16 1.99
~ of which US 20.42 20.42 5.75 5.50 5.91 5.72 0.16 3.06
16.52 17.03 17.04 16.86 0.21 1.26
Total Non-OECD 58.17 59.17 104.30 105.53 106.36 105.13 1.29 1.24
~ of which India 5.55 5.70
~ of which China 16.65 16.86

Total world 103.84 104.33

Source- OPEC monthly report, July 2025

Global petroleum product prices

US Gulf Coast (USGC) refining margins against WTI dropped from the 13-month high registered in May. A
recovery in product output with refineries returning to normal operations following the heavy turnaround
season weighed on product crack spreads, particularly for gasoline and residual fuel. The downturn in US
refining economics emerged against a backdrop of stronger gasoil margin performance, as geopolitical
factors restricted gasoil inflows. Gasoline markets are expected to have strengthened, particularly around
the 4 July holiday, providing support to product markets. In addition, residual fuel balances in the Atlantic
basin remain low despite the recent increase. They are expected to strengthen, with upside potential in
conversion margins and feedstock blending demand. According to preliminary data, refinery intake in the
USGC added 480 tb/d to the previous month’s increase, to average 17.25 mb/d in June. USGC margins
against WTI averaged $17.05/b in June, down by $1.44, m-o-m, but up $3.56, y-o-y.

Refinery margins in Rotterdam against Brent retracted from the robust performance witnessed in May.
Product supply-side pressures stemming from higher product availability led to poor crack spread
performance at both the top and bottom sections of the barrel. Similarly to the US, middle distillate crack
spreads saw upward pressure due to temporary East-to-West supply disruptions. In addition, the rise in
gasoil margins prompted a maximisation of gasoil yields at the cost of reduced jet/kerosene yields. This
supported jet/kerosene crack spreads. Going forward, jet kerosene crack spreads are expected to improve
as air travel activities in Europe generally strengthen over the summer.

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