Page 8 - Policy Economic Report - Feb 2026
P. 8
POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET
Figure 2: Contributions to global growth
Source - World Bank
Global Trade
Growth in global goods and services trade is expected to slow further this year, from 3.4 percent in 2025
to 2.2 percent in 2026, as the front-loading that supported trade in 2025 fades. Global trade growth in
2025 is 1.6 percentage points higher than June expectations, reflecting stronger stockpiling than
anticipated. In turn, the unwinding of this temporary boost, along with delayed tariff effects, has resulted
in a 0.2 percentage point downgrade to the trade growth projection in 2026.
In 2027, trade growth is expected to firm to 2.7 percent, broadly in line with global output growth, as the
impact of tariff hikes diminishes and policy uncertainty recedes. Countries with more diversified export
destinations are expected to experience stronger trade growth over the forecast horizon.
Figure 3: Trade growth
Source - World Bank Page | 7
February 2026
