Page 11 - Policy Economic Report - Feb 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

This wage bump can boost the local economy, IMF research shows. Workers with more money in their
pockets spend more at local businesses, which in turn hire more staff to meet demand. In the US, for
example regions with higher adoption of new skills saw employment rise by 1.3 percent for each 1
percentage point increase in the share of job postings that require new skills over the past decade.

The picture for AI-related skills is even more complex. While these skills command wage premiums, they
have not contributed to employment growth so far, like other new skills have. In fact, employment levels
in AI-vulnerable occupations are lower in regions with high demand for AI skills—3.6 percent lower after
five years than in regions with less demand for these skills. That’s a challenge for young people starting
their careers as entry-level jobs have higher exposure to AI. These findings align with emerging
evidence from the US that generative AI adoption reduces entry-level hiring—especially when tasks can
be automated.

3. Global Economy Shakes Off Tariff Shock Amid Tech-Driven Boom
Global economic growth continues to show notable resilience despite significant US-led trade disruptions
and heightened uncertainty. IMF’s latest projections indicate that global growth will hold steady at 3.3
percent this year, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points compared to October estimates, with most
of the improvement accounted for by the United States and China.

This surprising strength reflects a confluence of factors, including easing trade tensions, higher-than-
expected fiscal stimulus, accommodative financial conditions, the agility of the private sector in mitigating
trade disruptions and improved policy frameworks especially in emerging market economies.

Figure 6: Global economy has shown resilience to tariff shocks

Source - IMF Page | 10

February 2026