Page 18 - Policy Economic Report - September 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

• Top 5 export destinations, in terms of change in value, exhibiting growth in August 2025 vis a vis
August 2024 are U Arab Emts (23.42%), U S A (7.15%), Netherland (17.87%), Hong Kong (62.46%)
and China P Rp (22.38%).

• Top 5 export destinations, in terms of change in value, exhibiting growth in April-August 2025 vis
a vis April-August 2024 are U S A (18.06%), China P Rp (19.82%), U Arab Emts (6.53%), Hong Kong
(26.19%) and Germany (11.73%).

• Top 5 import sources, in terms of change in value, exhibiting growth in August 2025 vis a vis August
2024 are Russia (21.7%), Saudi Arab (38.43%), Ireland (150.15%), Iraq (8.85%) and Qatar (15.25%).

• Top 5 import sources, in terms of change in value, exhibiting growth in April-August 2025 vis a vis
April-August 2024 are China P Rp (10.19%), Ireland (266.67%), U Arab Emts (9.18%), Hong Kong
(24.05%) and U S A (8.54%).

6. S&P retains India’s GDP growth forecast at 6.5% on strong domestic demand

S&P Global Ratings retained India's GDP growth forecast at 6.5% in the current fiscal, citing strong
domestic demand amid a largely benign monsoon. S&P also said it expects a 25-bps rate cut by the RBI
this fiscal as it revised its inflation forecast down to 3.2% for this fiscal year.

In its Economic Outlook Asia-Pacific Q4 2025: Growth to Ease on External Strain report, S&P said that
across the region, relatively resilient domestic demand should dampen the impact from stronger external
headwinds following the increase in US import tariffs and slower global growth. U.S. tariffs on imports
from different Asian economies will shape both their export outlook and their role in regional supply
chains.

7. OECD raises India's growth outlook to 6.7% in 2025 over domestic demand

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised India's GDP growth by 40
bps to 6.7 per cent in 2025 from its earlier projection of 6.3 per cent in June, driven by strong domestic
demand and robust GST reforms. In India, higher tariff rates will weigh on the export sector, but overall
activity is anticipated to be supported by monetary and fiscal policy easing, including the reform to the
Goods and Services Tax, with growth projected to be 6.7% in 2025 and 6.2% in 2026.

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) surged to a five-quarter high of 7.8% in April-June period. To spur
consumption, the GST Council approved a two-slab structure (5% and 18%) to reduce tax rates on
household items, while in February the government announced that incomes up to Rs 12 lakh would be
exempted from income tax.

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