Page 17 - Policy Economic Report - October 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

? Asia remained the world’s top destination, despite a 29% drop in China. ASEAN countries stood out,
with inflows up 10% to a record $225 billion.

? In Latin America and the Caribbean, FDI fell 12%, though new projects in Argentina, Brazil and
Mexico signalled renewed investor appetite.

? The picture is bleak for vulnerable economies. Least developed countries attracted just $37 billion,
only 2% of global flows with capital concentrated in a few nations. Landlocked developing countries
saw inflows fall 10%, while small island developing states managed modest 14% growth.

5. Indian Economy

India’s economic growth

According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s Monetary Policy Report released in October, 2025, India’s
GDP growth is forecasted for FY 2025-26 at 6.8% from earlier estimate of 6.5%. Domestic growth is
performing well due to strong consumption, investments, and government spending, with supportive
factors like a good monsoon, GST 2.0, better credit flow, and rising capacity utilisation sustaining the
positive outlook.

India’s real GDP grew 7.8% in Q1 FY 2025-26, up from 7.4% in the previous quarter, the fastest pace in
seven quarters, led by strong investment and consumption. Growth for FY 2025-26 is projected at 6.8%
(Q1: 7.8%, Q2: 7.0%, Q3: 6.4%, Q4: 6.2%), while FY 2026-27 is estimated at 6.6%, assuming normal
monsoon and stable conditions.

Consumers’ optimism for the year ahead, which is measured by the future expectations index,
strengthened further for both urban and rural households, remaining in optimistic territory.

Global Agencies Reaffirm Growth

Several global agencies have maintained India’s strong economic growth prospects, highlighting the
country’s resilience amid global uncertainties.

IMF (FY26: 6.4%), Fitch (FY26: 6.9%, FY27: 6.3%), S&P Global (FY26: 6.5%), United Nations (FY26: 6.3%,
FY27: 6.4%), CII (FY26: 6.4-6.7%) and OECD (FY26: 6.7%) have noted robust domestic demand,
expanding investments, and a stable external sector as key drivers. Strong policy support, structural
reforms, and a vibrant services sector are further reinforcing the growth outlook. These projections
highlight broad confidence in India’s ability to sustain high growth amidst global challenges.

Inflation in India

? Headline inflation-: Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) for
the month of September, 2025 over September, 2024 is 1.54% (Provisional). There is decrease
of 53 basis points in headline inflation of September, 2025 in comparison to August, 2025. It is
the lowest year-on-year inflation after June, 2017.

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