Page 30 - Policy Economic Report - November 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Table 4: World Oil demand, mb/d

2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 Growth %
46.56 46.44 45.97 0.13 0.28
Total OECD 45.84 45.19 45.67 20.91 20.99 20.74 0.16 0.78
58.92 60.13 59.17 1.17 2.02
~ of which US 20.58 20.42 20.63 5.35 5.91 5.66 0.11 1.98
17.06 17.04 16.86 0.21 1.26
Total Non-OECD 58.00 59.08 58.54 105.49 106.57 105.14 1.30 1.25
~ of which India 5.55 5.70 5.68
~ of which China 16.65 16.86 16.47

Total world 103.84 104.26 104.21

Source - OPEC monthly report, November 2025

Global petroleum product prices

USGC refining margins against WTI edged higher to reach a 19-month high in October. This was backed by
jet/kerosene cracks amid geopolitical supply concerns and low inventories. The combination of these
supply-side dynamics, along with lower refinery product output resulting from maintenance work,
provided support. Additionally, solid residual fuel strength due to contracting availability in the Northern
hemisphere underpinned margins. The m-o-m upside, however, was limited, as considerable weakness at
the top of the barrel partly offset the strength registered at the middle and bottom sections. Although US
gasoline stocks declined significantly during October, amid elevated offline capacity, seasonally softening
demand signals pointed to a recovery in gasoline availability in the near term, which weighed on the
products' crack spread performance. The recent switch to winter-grade gasoline, which contains a higher
butane content allowance, should enable higher gasoline yields. This likely further contributed to the
softening near-term outlook for US gasoline markets.

According to preliminary data, refinery intake in the USGC fell by 1.05 mb/d from September’s level, to
average 15.88 mb/d in October. USGC margins against WTI averaged $18.47/b, up by 45?, m-o-m, and up
by $5.26, y-o-y.

Rotterdam refinery margins against Brent exhibited the smallest m-o-m increase relative to the USGC and
Singapore, but they still managed to reach a 19-month high. Concerns over declining gasoil/diesel
availability, amid geopolitical supply concerns, led to an increase in gasoil yields over the month amid
elevated margins. Although gasoil crack spreads remained elevated in absolute terms, the monthly
increase was almost flat. Gasoil was outperformed by jet/kerosene in October, with jet/kerosene
becoming the second largest margin driver, behind HSFO. Declining fuel oil flows from key refineries in
both Africa and the Middle East, amid downside product supply risks from Russia, have led to lower
availability of HSFO. This resulted in upward pressure for refining margins in Northwest Europe.

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