Page 9 - Policy Economic Report - July 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Figure 3: Global CPI inflation projections

Source- World Bank

Global Trade

• Global trade growth in goods and services is projected to slow sharply in 2025, to 1.8 percent,
from 3.4 percent in 2024.

• The forecast has been revised down by 1.3 percentage points since January, reflecting changes in
trade policies in key economies and higher trade policy uncertainty. Increased tariffs are expected
to weigh on global trade over the forecast horizon.

• Global trade conditions experienced a large shock in early April when the United States
announced prospective tariffs on most trading partners, with rates proportional to bilateral goods
trade deficits, in addition to previously announced tariffs.

• A sharp escalation of trade barriers between China and the United States followed. Subsequently,
country-specific tariffs were reduced to a universal 10 percent—including in the case of China.

• Trade growth is forecast to reach 2.4 percent in 2026 and 2.7 percent in 2027—still well below its
pre-pandemic average of 4.6 percent.

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