Page 11 - Policy Economic Report - July 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

However, the economics are changing and there is an opportunity for all BRICS countries to build on
the momentum the bloc has achieved. A report by Ember shows that 24/7 solar power is now cost-
competitive in countries like South Africa when paired with battery storage.

3. ADB Lowers Economic Growth Forecast for Asia and the Pacific

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its growth forecasts for economies in developing Asia
and the Pacific this year and next year. The downgrades are driven by expectations of reduced exports
amid higher United States (U.S.) tariffs and global trade uncertainty, as well as weaker domestic
demand.

ADB forecasts the region’s economies will grow by 4.7% this year, a 0.2 percentage point decline from
the projection issued in April. The forecast for next year has been lowered to 4.6% from 4.7%,
according to Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2025.

Prospects for developing Asia and the Pacific could be dented further by an escalation of U.S. tariffs
and trade tensions. Other risks include conflicts and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt global
supply chains and raise energy prices, and a worse-than-expected deterioration in the property
market of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

Figure 5: Global trade growth (%)

July 2025 Growth projections for the PRC, the region’s largest economy, are maintained at 4.7% this year and
4.3% next year. Policy stimulus for consumption and industrial activity is expected to offset continuing
property market weakness and softening exports. India, the region’s second-largest economy, is
forecast to grow by 6.5% this year and 6.7% next year—down 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points,

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