Page 6 - Policy Economic Report - September 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Economy in Focus

1. A snapshot of the global economy

Global economic growth

• According to the OECD in its latest economic outlook, global Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and to 2.9 percent in
2026.

• According to the OECD, the downward revision from its previous forecast is due to "front-loading
ceasing and higher tariff rates and still-high policy uncertainty" that dampen investment and
trade.

• The report cautioned that risks to the outlook remain elevated. Potential triggers for weaker
growth include further tariff escalation, renewed inflationary pressures, heightened fiscal
concerns, and financial market instability.

Figure 1: Global Growth in Q1 2025-26 (%)

Source- OECD

• For the United States, GDP growth is forecast to decline from 2.8 percent in 2024 to 1.8 percent
in 2025, and then to 1.5 percent in 2026, as strong investment in high-tech sectors is outweighed
by the drag from tariffs and lower net immigration.

• In the eurozone, GDP is projected to grow by 1.2 percent in 2025 and 1.0 percent in 2026. While
easier credit conditions provide some support, trade frictions and geopolitical uncertainty are
expected to limit momentum.

• Growth in China is projected to be 4.9% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, as front-loading unwinds, higher
tariffs take effect and fiscal support fades.

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