Page 8 - Policy Economic Report - October 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

? Growth in the euro area is expected to pick up modestly to 1.2 percent in 2025 and to 1.1
percent in 2026. Elevated uncertainty on multiple fronts and higher tariffs are the main drivers.

? In Japan, growth is expected to accelerate from 0.1 percent in 2024 to 1.1 percent in 2025 and
moderate to 0.6 percent in 2026. These dynamics are driven by an expected pickup in real wage
growth supporting private consumption, despite headwinds from elevated trade policy
uncertainty and softening external demand.

? In the United Kingdom, growth in 2025 and 2026 is expected to be 1.3 percent, revised, on a
cumulative basis, slightly upward relative to April.

? Growth in emerging and developing Asia is expected to decline from 5.3 percent in 2024 to 5.2
percent in 2025 and further to 4.7 percent in 2026.

? In China, the 2025 GDP growth forecast was revised downward by 0.6 percentage point in the
April 2025 WEO, with the escalation of trade tensions between China and the United States.

? In India, growth is projected to be 6.6 percent in 2025 and 6.2 percent in 2026. Compared with
the July WEO Update, this is an upward revision for 2025, with carryover from a strong first
quarter more than offsetting the increase in the US effective tariff rate on imports from India
since July, and a downward revision for 2026.

? In Latin America and the Caribbean, growth is projected to remain stable at 2.4 percent in 2025
and fall slightly to 2.3 percent in 2026.

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