Page 4 - Policy Economic Report - November 2025

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Executive Summary

According to OECD, GDP growth showed a mixed picture across the 25 OECD; wherein 12 countries
recorded higher growth rates compared with Q2 2025, GDP was unchanged in 3 countries, while 5
recorded lower growth compared with Q2 2025 and 5 recorded a GDP contraction. As a result, GDP
growth in the OECD slowed to 0.2% in Q3 2025, down from 0.4% in the previous quarter, according to
provisional estimates released by OECD.

Looking at G7 countries, growth accelerated in France, reaching 0.5%, up from 0.3% in Q2 2025, sustained
by foreign trade as exports accelerated and imports decreased. Canada’s growth recovered in Q3 to 0.1%,
from -0.4% in the previous quarter. In Japan, GDP contracted by 0.4% in Q3, after 0.6% growth in Q2.
Foreign trade was the main drag on Japanese growth, with exports decreasing in Q3. The United Kingdom
saw a slowdown from 0.3% in Q2 to 0.1% in Q3, as destocking continued. Germany and Italy recorded
zero growth in Q3, after contractions of 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, in Q2.

In case of India, according to S&P Global Ratings, India's GDP is projected to grow by 6.5% in FY 2026 and
6.7% in FY 2027, with risks evenly balanced. This growth is bolstered by strong domestic consumption,
expected tax reductions, and a supportive monetary policy stance.

The projection underscores India’s position as one of the world’s fastest-growing large economies, even
amid global uncertainties. The outlook reflects confidence in India’s policy framework and its ability to
sustain growth through internal drivers rather than heavy reliance on exports or external demand.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has forecast India’s GDP growth at 6.8% for the fiscal year, slightly higher
than S&P’s 6.5%. Both projections, however, indicate a healthy and stable growth trajectory amid global
economic challenges such as inflation, geopolitical instability, and trade friction.

Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of October, 2025
over October, 2024 is 0.25% (Provisional). There is decrease of 119 basis points in headline inflation of
October, 2025 in comparison to September, 2025. Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India
Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) for the month of October, 2025 over October, 2024 is -5.02%
(Provisional). Corresponding inflation rates for rural and urban are –4.85% and -5.18%, respectively.

The decline in headline inflation and food inflation during the month of October, 2025 is mainly attributed
to full month’s impact of decline in GST, favourable base effect and to drop in inflation of Oils and fats,
Vegetables, Fruits, Egg, Footwear, Cereals and products, Transport and Communication etc.

The HSBC Flash India Composite Output Index, which measures the combined performance of India’s
manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 59.9 in November from 60.4 in October, according to data
released by S&P Global. Manufacturing reported the steepest slowdown. The flash India Manufacturing
PMI fell to a nine-month low of 57.4 from 59.2 in October, citing weaker factory production and softer
new business inflows. Services activity offered some support, rising to 59.5 from October’s 58.9. However,
new export orders across both sectors rising at the slowest pace since March, reflecting the drag from the
U.S. decision to impose 50% tariffs on certain imports from India.

November 2025 Page | 3