Page 7 - Policy Economic Report - Jan 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

In emerging market and developing economies, growth is expected to continue to hover just above 4.0
percent in 2026 and 2027.

• Relative to the projection in October, growth in 2025 for China is revised upward by 0.2
percentage point to 5.0 percent. The revision reflects stimulus measures and additional policy
bank lending for investment. Growth for 2026 is also revised upward by 0.3 percentage point to
4.5 percent, reflecting the lower US effective tariff rates on Chinese goods

• In India, growth is revised upward by 0.7 percentage point to 7.3 percent for 2025. Growth is
projected to moderate to 6.4 percent in 2026 and 2027 as cyclical and temporary factors wane.

In the Middle East and Central Asia, growth is projected to accelerate from 3.7 percent in 2025 to 3.9
percent in 2026 and to 4.0 percent in 2027, supported by higher oil output, resilient local demand, and
ongoing reforms.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, growth is projected to moderate to 2.2 percent in 2026 and bounce
to 2.7 percent in 2027 as countries in the region approach potential from different cyclical positions.

Figure 2: Global Growth projections by region (Real GDP growth, % change)

Source- IMF Page | 6

January 2026