Page 54 - Policy Economic Report - Jan 2026

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Globally, primary energy demand is projected to increase by 23 per cent over the same period, rising from
about 308 million barrels of oil equivalent per day to around 378 million barrels of oil equivalent per day,
with non-OECD countries accounting for nearly 72 percent of total demand by 2050.

On the economic front, The OECD report said that India is expected to emerge as the world’s fastest-
growing major economy, with average annual GDP growth of around 5.8 per cent between 2024 and 2050.
India’s share of global GDP is projected to rise from about 8 percent in 2024 to 17 percent by 2050,
significantly increasing its influence on global energy markets. Globally, economic growth over the outlook
period is expected to be driven primarily by non-OECD countries.

The report said that demographic trends will consolidate India’s central role in future energy demand.
India, already the world’s most populous country, will continue to anchor global population growth and
rising energy consumption. At the global level, population is projected to increase by around 1.5 billion by
2050, with almost all growth occurring in non-OECD countries, alongside increasing urbanisation and
improving living standards.

The Outlook underscores the need for sustained investment to meet rising demand and offset natural
decline rates. Globally, cumulative oil-related investment requirements are estimated at around USD 18.2
trillion between 2025 and 2050, including nearly USD 15 trillion in upstream investment.

IEW 2026: Policy Certainty, Low Renewable Energy Cost and Technology Adoption Drive India’s
Hydrogen and Clean Fuel Momentum

India’s green hydrogen goals are moving decisively from ambition to execution, driven by competitive
pricing, long-term demand creation and sectoral integration, Shri Abhay Bakre, Mission Director, National
Green Hydrogen Mission, said at the Leadership Spotlight Session on the third day of India Energy Week
2026.

Speaking on the Resilience Stage at the session titled Scaling Green Ammonia: Value Chain Synergies and
the Hydrogen Ecosystem, Bakre said India’s target of producing 5 million tonnes of green hydrogen by
2030 has found impetus through successful price discovery, enabling projects to advance toward final
investment decisions.

“These three years—2025, 2026 and 2027—are very important for the ecosystem to actually act as a
launchpad”, said Bakre. He added that green hydrogen and ammonia prices are increasingly approaching
parity with conventional alternatives, a crucial development towards large-scale domestic adoption and
exports.

From a technology and industry perspective, Gary Godwin, Vice President, Sustainable Technology
Solutions and Global Lead, Critical Minerals, KBR said that green ammonia technologies are now
commercially viable and capable of operating at global scale. He noted that the next priority is building
robust supply chains and long-term offtake arrangements to unlock deployment across power, shipping
and heavy industry.

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